Analyst sets $95,000 maximum for Bitcoin’s fair value in the face of declining network activity

Analyst sets $95,000 ceiling for Bitcoin fair value amid declining network activity

CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin (BTC), network activity, has fallen to the lowest levels in an entire year. The fair value of BTC is now between $48,000-$95,000.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $96,500, making the flagship crypto overvalued from a network activity perspective based on CryptoQuant’s valuation model.

Bitcoin Network Activity Index is down 15% from its November 2024 peak. The index is currently at 3,760, its lowest level since Feb 2024.

The decline is mainly due to a decrease in transactions. Total daily transactions are currently at 346,000. This is a drop of 53% from an all-time peak of 734,000 in September 2024.

Popularity of Runes is declining

Runes tokens are a major reason for the decline of network activity. The Runes protocol relies heavily on OP_RETURN code to store data related to tokens, however the use of this code in Bitcoin transactions has decreased significantly.

By April 2024 the daily OP Returnn codes had reached 802,000.  In January, however, this number dropped from 802,000 to 10,000.

The average daily OP_RETURN code has dropped from 802,000 in April 2024 to 10,000 since January.

As of Feb. 4, Runes-related transactions totaled 6,110, accounting for about 2.5% of Bitcoin’s daily transaction volume, based on data from a Dune Analytics dashboard Crypto Koryo is a new cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin transfers accounted for 73.5 percent of the network’s daily transactions between Jan. 1 and Feb. 4. This is a significant increase over other forms of currency such as Ordinals (BRC-20) tokens or Runes.

This decline is also evident in Bitcoin’s mempool. Unconfirmed transactions have plummeted from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 — a 99% drop. Mempool records the last time it recorded low activity, which was March 2022.

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BTC prices may not be as high as they seem. Bitfinex Saying in the a Latest Report Bitcoin has remained resilient even in the face of market volatility. President Donald Trump’s Tariff Plans

BTC’s performance in January was 9.4% better than the overall crypto market, which saw a decline on average of 25,7%.

Bitcoin Market Data

Press release The UTC time zone for Feb. 6 is 12:01 AM.Bitcoin’s market capitalization is the highest in the world. You can find out more about it by clicking here. 1.32% Over the past 24 hour. Bitcoin’s market capitalization is 1 Trillion Dollars The 24-hour volume trading is $49,27 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›

Bitcoin

On Feb. 6, 2025, 12:01 UTC

$96,607.11

-1.32% Crypto Market Analysis

Press release On Feb. 6, 2025, 12:01 UTCThe total market value of crypto is at 3.17 trillion Dollars With a volume of 24 hours. 128.11 billion dollars. Bitcoin dominates the market at 60.37%. Learn more about the crypto market ›

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leadzevs/ author of the article

LeadZevs (John Lesley) is an experienced trader specializing in technical analysis and forecasting of the cryptocurrency market. He has over 10 years of experience with a wide range of markets and assets - currencies, indices and commodities.John is the author of popular topics on major forums with millions of views and works as both an analyst and a professional trader for both clients and himself.