Arthur Hayes – former CEO of BitMEX – predicted the future in an article published on Jan. blog post Bitcoin (BTC), before it reaches $250,000, is most likely to move to a range between $75,000 and $70,000.
Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s historical volatility makes a 30% correction plausible within this bull market.
The recent optimism in the market would be wiped out if the price of the stock drops below $70,000. “Trump Trade” following President Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024.
Hayes, according to:
“A pullback of this magnitude would be ugly. I think we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year than to continue [grinding] higher with no material pullback.”
Hayes also said a sharp correction in Bitcoin’s price would probably trigger a larger drop in the value of altcoins. This could create lucrative opportunities for investors who were positioned to take advantage.
Consequently, a large liquidation of Bitcoin positions could signal when it’s time to find reasonable entry prices in other crypto.
History is often rhymed
Hayes started the year with a positive outlook, but has since changed his mind. Hayes compared his unease with the downturn in late 2021.
Hayes, while optimistic in regards to the continuation of the bull cycle by 2025 sees that a possible correction is approaching. He focuses a lot of his analyses on the relationship between global monetary and financial policy.
Hayes raised concerns over the US Federal Reserve. The Fed, he said, is facing a delicate act of balancing rising Treasury yields with political pressures. The record pace of debt issuance and the reluctance of usual buyers — foreign governments and commercial banks — are creating a “powder keg”The Treasury market.
Hayes has also said that rising yields may trigger a small financial crisis forcing the Federal Reserve into reversing course and reducing rates. THis potential liquidation injection could ignite a huge rally of risk assets such as Bitcoins, as investors look for refuge against the devaluation fiat currency.
Macro indicators
Hayes examined the monetary policies of China and Japan. He noted a decline in the creation of money in both countries.
The People’s Bank of China launched its reflationary policy in 2024 but abruptly changed course in 2025 to opt for currency stability rather than economic stimulation. In a similar way, the Bank of Japan tightened its monetary policies, further limiting global liquidity.
He highlighted the fact that Bitcoin is negatively affected by these short-term conditions. Yet, he still set the scene for future growth as central bankers will turn to money-printing to deal with financial instabilities.
Bitcoin also shows an increased short-term correlation to traditional assets. This is particularly true for US technology stocks.
Hayes says that Bitcoin may be an indicator of financial distress, as Nasdaq’s futures are falling amid worries about rising yields.
“Bitcoin is the only truly global free market in existence. It is extremely sensitive to global fiat liquidity conditions; therefore, if a fiat liquidity crunch is forthcoming, its price will break down before that of stocks and will be the leading indicator of financial stress.”
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