According to the most recent edition of The Telegraph, Bitcoin (BTC), could reach a price peak of $290,000.000 by early 2026, if the bull market of 2017 is repeated. “Bitfinex Alpha” report.
The projection is based on historical price patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.
Following its bear market low in November 2022, Bitcoin rebounded strongly with a 155.5% gain in 2023. The momentum carried into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year and posting a 143% year-to-date gain.
The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, bolstered by anticipation of Bitcoin’s 2024 halving event, which historically precedes a bullish year.
Additionally, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which have provided consistent demand and limited the scale and duration of market corrections.
Cycle patterns
In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin’s largest correction was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle saw a 27.1% drawdown. In the current cycle, corrections have been more contained due to growing institutional interest, further enhancing market stability.
A key tool for predicting Bitcoin’s price peaks, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, has historically marked cycle highs with remarkable accuracy. The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In prior cycles, when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMAx2, Bitcoin has typically reached a significant price peak. The report highlighted that this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025, if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats or as late as Jan. 28, 2026, in a scenario mirroring the 2017 extended cycle.
Price projections
Based on historical performance, Bitcoin has peaked significantly above its moving averages during bull runs. In 2017, it traded three times the value of its moving averages at its peak. However, returns have diminished as BTC matures, suggesting more conservative price projections.
According to Bitfinex, if Bitcoin follows the 2021 trajectory, it could increase 40% above its moving averages and reach a price of around $339,000.
However, considering the subdued returns, Bitcoin may rise 15% to 20% above its moving averages, placing its peak in the $160,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2025. Meanwhile, in the less likely event that the 2017 cycle repeats, Bitcoin could peak at approximately $290,000 by early 2026.
Although historical indicators point to a possible peak of between $160,000 and $299,000, the actual path towards this level will be determined by market maturity, ETF use, and broader macroeconomic factors, according to the report.
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