Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has questioned the persistence of Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical four-year cycle, suggesting that recent policy shifts in Washington could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.
Hougan wrote to his clients that Bitcoin traditionally follows a cycle, which consists of a strong three-year period followed by an inevitable pullback. This pattern was first identified by Hougan in the middle of 2022. He predicted that the market would rebound between 2023-2024.
Based on previous trends, we can expect 2025 to be a strong year. However, 2026’s outlook may be quite different.
According to Hougan, economic factors rather than Bitcoin’s halving events are the primary drivers of the four-year cycle. The market’s upswings are usually triggered by a catalyst that attracts investors and creates momentum.
As past events like the fall of Mt. Gox, in 2014 and by the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC), in 2018 the SEC cracked down on ICOs.
Catalysts
Grayscale’s March 2023 legal victory over the SEC triggered the current cycle. Bitwise named it the “Mainstream Cycle.”This decision paved the road for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), launched in January of 2024, and attracted substantial institutional investment.
Since that initial ruling, Bitcoin’s price has surged from $22,218 to over $102,000. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s recent executive orders related to digital assets A new factor has been introduced that may catalyze a rally of new heights.
It is deemed important to expand the digital asset eco-system. “national priority,”It signals regulatory clarity and details plans for potential “national crypto stockpile.” These actions, combined with a pro-crypto shift within the SEC, may accelerate Wall Street’s integration into the crypto market.
Hougan predicts ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin purchases could push Bitcoin’s price beyond $200,000 in 2025.
He acknowledges the growing leverage of the market through borrowing to buy Bitcoin and lending it out, but he believes that institutional support and regulatory approval could prevent severe corrections like those in previous cycles.
Though speculation-driven pullbacks remain possible, Hougan expects any downturn to be less severe than previous cycles due to the crypto market’s maturation. Hougan believes the market will remain positive for a long time despite its inevitable volatility.
Hougan stated that as the crypto-market evolves, traditional market cycles might no longer be applicable. This would indicate a shift to broader institutional inclusion and sustained investor interests.
Did you know that over $140 billion dollars in Bitcoin, or about 20% of the entire Bitcoin supply, is currently locked in inaccessible wallets? Or maybe you have lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? Don’t let those funds remain out of reach! AI Seed Phrase Finder is here to help you regain access effortlessly. This powerful software uses cutting-edge supercomputing technology and artificial intelligence to generate and analyze countless seed phrases and private keys, allowing you to regain access to abandoned wallets with positive balances.
