Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas & James Seyffart released the latest odds on approval for altcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) by 2025. The lowest chance was given to XRP.
According to latest estimates, Litecoin leads the pack with a 90 percent probability of acceptance, followed by Dogecoin at 75 percent and Solana (SOL) at 70% — XRP trails The others have a chance of approval at 65%.
Balchunas highlighted:
“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election. So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process.”
US Securities and Exchange Commission Recent Recognition The 19b-4 versions of Litecoin ETF boost their chances for approval. Balchunas has recently You can find out more about this by clicking here. Check out LTC Products “all the boxes,”The SEC has no good reason to remove the documents.
Analysts believe that Litecoin will also be regarded as a commodity, since it is a fork from Bitcoin and uses the same algorithm of proof-of work consensus. It has not conducted any pre-sales.
Analysts believe that DOGE will be considered as a commodity for similar reasons to LTC or Bitcoin (BTC). In different cases, the SEC has classified SOL and XRP securities.
This is probably why DOGE ETFs have 5% higher odds of approval than Solana despite the SEC not acknowledging DOGE funds’ 19b-4 forms as of press time.
Significant changes
However, the analysts noted that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force could review the SEC’s classification of XRP and SOL as securities by the end of 2025. It could have a significant impact on the likelihood of ETFs for these cryptos receiving approval.
Regarding the SEC’s attention to filings, Seyffart said that both XRP and DOGE ETFs will likely be acknowledged this week.
Balchunas also said that although their analysis currently only covers 1933 Act filings – similar to BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund – alternative structures, such as 40 Act Futures-based exchange traded funds or Cayman subsidiary funds, could also be emerging.
Due to the increasing demand from institutions for crypto products and pressures on SEC for regulatory clarity, 2025 might be an important turning point for ETFs that track spot altcoins.
Seyffart Balchunas has already predicted A “wave of crypto ETFs”This year, due to the more favorable regulatory environment in the US with the current administration.
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