MicroStrategy Stock Sinks 16% as Bitcoin Nears $100K—Is It Too Hot to Handle?

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor at Bitcoin Nashville 2024. Photo: Decrypt/André Beganski

MicroStrategy’s shares dropped 16% on Thursday to $397.28, after statements by influential investment firm Citron Research stating that they had taken a short against the company but maintained a long in Bitcoin.

It is important to note that the word “you” means “you”. Disclosure The stock is overvalued by some due to what they perceive as an excessive valuation. Citron Research said Bitcoin investing was a good idea. "easier than ever," Citing stocks and ETFs available on trading platforms Coinbase, and Robinhood.

Citron, a company that has backed MicroStrategy since 2020. "the best way to play Bitcoin," argued the company's valuation had become "completely detached" Bitcoin Fundamentals despite Alpha Crypto Nearing $100,000 Following a three-week rise in new all-time lows.

Citron and MicroStrategy didn’t immediately return Decrypt's Requests for comments

The stock had reached an intraday high of $543 in early trading.

According to Eric Balchunas senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, MicroStrategy is now the second most active stock traded on the Nasdaq in terms of dollar volume. It trails Nvidia. 

The analyst is also The claim that it's been years since a stock has traded this much, claiming it "may have actually been $GME to last do it."

GME, or GameStop, is the stock that became known as GME. "meme stock" The stock market experienced dramatic changes in the early 2021 trading frenzy. Keith Gill is also known as Roaring Kitty, the influential trader known for being a GME bull, has been on and off Twitter—most recently to Dump another Stock, CHWY.

Solana memes inspired by GME or Roaring Kitty also saw record highs in the first half of this year. However, those numbers later declined as Roaring Kitty took another Twitter break.

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Capital for the bull market

It is important to note that the word “you” means “you”. "Trump trade" fever seems to have cooled off — more than doubling and outpacing Bitcoin's 40% gain — but expectations of a Crypto-friendly regulatory regime In the U.S., companies like MicroStrategy are using their position and buying more Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy's aggressive capital raising strategy has also intensified scrutiny of its valuation premium. Adjusted for Debt and revenueThe company’s Bitcoin holdings are worth roughly 3.5x the price of the stock.

You can also You can complete the form by clicking on the button below. The strong investor demand led to an increase in the target size of $3 billion from $1.75 billion. These zero-coupon notes due 2029 carry a conversion rate of 1.4872 shares per $1,000 principal, equivalent to roughly $672 per share—a 55% premium over recent trading prices.

This debt raise comes after $6.6 billion was raised in stock sales last month. All proceeds were already allocated to Bitcoin purchases. This forms part of MicroStrategy's ambitious "21/21" In October, the company announced a strategy to raise $42 Billion through equal sales of stocks and bonds until 2027 in order to expand its Bitcoin holdings.

How Bitcoins work like magic

MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin amplifier, using convertible debts to buy more Bitcoins while its stock is trading at a premium in bull markets. This analysis by media outlet Sherwood Explained. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where rising Bitcoin prices boost MSTR's stock, allowing it to raise capital to acquire even more Bitcoin cheaply.

However, this strategy carries significant risk if Bitcoin enters an extended bear market that pushes MSTR's stock below the conversion prices of its outstanding notes, which total over $4.8 billion. 

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MicroStrategy could be forced to liquidate its Bitcoins to pay creditors, as it has minimal cash reserves. (Estimated at $46.3 million). This would trigger a negative feedback cycle where the Bitcoin saleoff could lead to further price drops and more liquidations.

MicroStrategy, which currently holds 331,200 BTC at an average of $49,874 a coin, has established itself as a leader in the cryptocurrency market. "the world's first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company." 

The value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings is estimated at $32 billion. In comparison, the company's market capitalization has swelled to around $107 billion—a dramatic increase compared to late 2023 when the stock traded near parity with its Bitcoin holdings.

The company's year-to-date performance remains strong despite Thursday's decline, with the stock up nearly 500% compared to Bitcoin's 110% gain and the S&P 500's 25% advance.

However, as Citron's short position implies, maintaining such outperformance may prove challenging as investors weigh the merits of MicroStrategy's premium against more direct Bitcoin investment vehicles.

Sebastian Sinclair edited the book

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leadzevs/ author of the article

LeadZevs (John Lesley) is an experienced trader specializing in technical analysis and forecasting of the cryptocurrency market. He has over 10 years of experience with a wide range of markets and assets - currencies, indices and commodities.John is the author of popular topics on major forums with millions of views and works as both an analyst and a professional trader for both clients and himself.

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