Polymarket betting now projects an 85% probability that US Securities and Exchange Commission approves spot Solana exchange traded funds (ETFs), by 2025. The increase is a result of a 35% confidence boost in the past few days.
Recent growth in Solana shares indicates that the ETFs are expected to follow Bitcoin and Ethereum’s path, further integrating cryptocurrencies within the financial markets.
Growing confidence
Polymarket’s odds initially placed the chances of Solana ETF approval at 45%, but this figure has steadily climbed to 85% as of Jan. 2, signaling increasing investor optimism. As a result, there is a moderate chance of the Solana ETF being approved by mid-2025, according to a survey conducted in July.
As five asset managers have applied for Solana funds, Grayscale, VanEck 21Shares Bitwise Canary Capital among others, the market is optimistic.
Despite the influx of applications, the SEC’s classification of SOL as a security in ongoing lawsuits has added regulatory uncertainty to the approval process. This classification may complicate the approval process for Solana financial products.
Analysts note that Volatility Shares’ recent filing for three Solana futures ETFs in December 2024 is a positive indicator of market demand, even though Solana futures are not yet available on regulated exchanges. Experts in the industry interpret this as laying a foundation for future Solana exchange-traded funds.
The guard is changed
A pivotal element in the approval of Solana’s ETFs is the anticipated leadership shift at the SEC by 2025.
Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, and ETF Store President Nate Geraci, suggest that the nomination of a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, such as Paul Atkins could result in a more positive stance towards digital asset ETFs.
There is hope that a new administration will bring greater clarity to the regulatory environment and more flexibility in regards to Solana, and altcoins.
The potential approval of Solana ETFs in 2025 could represent a major milestone for the crypto sector, reinforcing Solana’s position as a significant player in the digital asset space. Final outcome depends on the way the regulatory climate evolves, and how new SEC leadership influences crypto policy.
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