As New Year’s Eve is upon us, so too are Polymarket prediction markets for 2025, which are open for traders to bet on events for the next 12 months.
In 2025 predictions, the Sports Betting category has surpassed the Elections of 2024. The 2025 NFL Draft is the most popular bet in the section for 2025. With $465.998 worth of wagers, it leads the list. Contract participants are monitoring quarterback prospects and broader scouting developments, reflecting the platform’s highest activity level.
Other prediction markets show that volume has dropped significantly for 2025. The next largest contract involves Bitcoin’s price outlook, drawing just $28,640. Probabilities of the Bitcoin price reaching $120,000 is 70% and that it will drop to $70,000, are 50%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,000 and has a 94% chance of regaining $100,000 in the coming year.
A contract for 2025 Federal Reserve actions contains $27,507 of wagers. It places an 11 percent probability on no rate cut. A second contract measures the probability of a rise in interest rates, which is currently 15%. These figures show a range of opinions on how quickly policy could change under the next administration.
The odds of Vladimir Putin leaving the presidency in 2025 are 13%, and traders seem to be focused also on a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine at 71%. In the Middle East, a Netanyahu exit sits at 27%, while the odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader stepping down from power reach 44%. The contracts show a continuing, but meager demand for hedges relating to geopolitical changes.
It is frightening to think that there’s a 22 percent chance of having a nuclear bomb detonated by 2025. This raises concerns about rising tensions throughout the world. But even a small test explosion would count.
“For the purpose of this market’s resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a “Yes” resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.”
Geopolitical agreements are tied to energy and potential sanctions, which may affect the global commodities flows.
The importance of corporate events is also emphasized. NVIDIA is ranked at 26%, while Apple comes in at 36%.
In stablecoin markets, a contract on Tether’s potential depegging stands at 16%, while a question on a potential Tether insolvency holds just an 11% probability.
Polymarket’s largest betting markets
However, outside of the 2025 specific markets, Polymarket’s highest-volume markets also remain focused on sports. In the Champions League, bets totaling $699.410.841 indicate a British victory. Arsenal and Liverpool are the top two teams, each with 14%. Manchester City is close behind at 10%.
Following closely behind is the NBA Champion contract at $410 909 837. Here, Boston Celtics has a 26% probability of winning. Another notable soccer market, the Premier League winner, totals $341,757,688, assigning a 71% chance to Liverpool’s triumph and 13% to Arsenal.
Celtics (46%), and Lakers (45%) are the two teams that will determine the Eastern Conference Champion.
Cleveland Cavaliers 16%
Sports are potentially set to be Polymarket’s dominant segment through 2025 without a Presidential Election in view. A cross-sectional analysis of financial and geopolitical contracts reveals a general interest in the future direction leadership, monetary policies, and security issues may take.
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