Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of research for digital assets, believes that Bitcoin (BTC), after six weekends in a row of poor returns could be about to change.
In a research note shared with CryptoSlate on Feb. 14, Kendrick highlighted Bitcoin’s recent pattern of weak weekend price action, with every weekend since early January posting negative returns.
The declines were attributed to headlines that moved the market, such as volatility related to DeepSeek news at the end of January and concerns about tariffs on February 12.
He believes that macroeconomic conditions have improved and US bonds are trending down, so he expects better weekend results.
“Given we have had the bad news (as below re tariffs) and US 10Y yields are currently down on the week (and very importantly below 4.5%), I think this weekend will be different.”
The market is pointing to a recovery
Kendrick analyzed Bitcoin’s day-of-week performance in 2024, noting that Mondays and Fridays have typically been the strongest trading days.
The weekend session has been mediocre, which could be exacerbated due to lower trading sentiment and lower liquidity.
He said that an ETF inflow could be re-started on Monday if a positive catalyst was created over the weekend. This would help Bitcoin to break free of its current trading range. Kendrick noted:
“A small positive over the weekend can lead to ETF buying Monday after a week of ETF outflows.”
Bitcoin may then reach psychologically important levels of $100,000 or $102,500, since the currency is now a “Giffen good after all,”The economic theory of increasing demand as the price increases.
Bitcoin is still on the rise, with a gain of more than 20 percent year to date.
Tariff Uncertainty
Beyond Bitcoin’s technical outlook, Kendrick also discussed broader macroeconomic developments, particularly the impact of US inflation data and shifting expectations around former President Donald Trump’s potential policies.
US Treasury yields have declined after a Consumer Price Index Report (CPI) that was weaker than expected earlier in the Week and a Producer Price Index reading (PPI) on February 14th.
Kendrick believes that the 10-year Treasury yield is a positive for digital assets. It’s a measure of risk appetite and borrowing costs.
Analyst:
“If latest headlines are to be believed, we are past bad Trump from a tariff perspective, with reciprocal tariffs only taking effect April 1.”
He suggested, too, that the optimism surrounding a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could help to further change market sentiment. He pointed out:
“On the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we may be finally moving from bad Trump to good Trump as far as risk assets are concerned.”
Kendrick also reiterated that his position on Bitcoin is bullish, stating that, if macro-factors hold true, then the cryptocurrency could reach $102,500 within the next few months.
According to CryptoSlate, Bitcoin traded at $97.348 by the time of publication, an increase of 2% in just 24 hours.
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