Today, the CPI released its first reading for this year. It showed that the inflation rate increased in January by a record-breaking fourth month. The headline number is up by 3% on the whole year. This was slightly higher than what analysts predicted.
Prices across the board have increased by 0.5% in the past month. This is the largest increase for a single month since August 2023. The core index (excluding food and energy) is up 0.4% since December.
CPI reports for January are always important, as they reflect the price movements at year-end. In the past, January has seen higher price rises.
Shelter costs made up almost 30 percent of the CPI rise, but some of that increase is due to California wildfires. The headline number was also boosted by food prices.
Food index rose 0.4% from December, with the meat, poultry, egg, and fish alone up 1.9%.
The news initially caused stocks to fall, but they recovered their losses in later sessions. 10-year Treasury yields — a proxy for loans and mortgages — jumped above 4.65%. CME Group’s data showed that odds of March rates being cut dropped from 5% down to 2.5%.
While these inflation numbers may seem alarming at first, they are actually not that far from what was expected. Inflation in the first quarter is almost always higher than expected. It’s almost a perfect storm when you add in the fires that have ravaged the Los Angeles region. The market will decide tomorrow.
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