A horizontal line has appeared on my BTC chart ever since I tested the level of $91k back in November. “1D close below here = end of bull market.”
As bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows of over $2.4billion in February due to macroeconomic concerns, we are left wondering: is this a short-term correction or the beginnings of a longer downturn.
Now I find myself in that latter group. After posting intraday lows around $86k — a nearly -20% retracement from its peak — the market may well be due for a bounce, but the support breakdown level is likely to provide firm resistance and it will take some serious force to get back into the range. There’s no obvious catalyst in the short-term.
Last straw for Bybit hack
The recent Bybit hack — now attributed to a compromised Safe wallet developer — has shaken some investors’ confidence, perpetuating fear-driven selling.
Bybit claims that it has replenished ETH and appears to have no problem servicing withdrawals. However, the damage done to market liquidity can be seen.
Kadan Stadlemann, CTO of Komodo Platform, suggested that legislators may seek to further tighten protections for consumers.
“This could include mandatory insurance for user funds, stricter licensing requirements for exchanges and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies to oversee cryptocurrency operations,” Stadlemann said Blockworks.
Rate uncertainty, outflows and liquidations
MEXC COO Tracy Jin attributes the decline of bitcoin to ETF withdrawals, macroeconomic uncertainties and the Bybit Hack.
“Bitcoin has broken through the $90,000 level, triggering liquidations worth over $1 billion,” Jin noted. “ETF outflows have persisted for six consecutive days, surpassing $2.4 billion in February alone.”
At this point, there is no reason to question the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position in delaying the expected rate cut until the second half 2025. Interest rates that are higher for longer dampen the demand for bitcoin and other speculative investments, while US tariffs increase inflation fears. As noted by Truflation, not everyone shares this opinion.
Bright Spots: Uniswap SEC victory and Saylor’s Strategy
Despite yesterday’s bearish mood, DeFi scored a big win: the SEC dropped its investigation of Uniswap. Kevin Rusher of RAAC sees it as a crucial moment.
“The SEC dropping its investigation into Uniswap isn’t enough to drag the market out of its current hole, but it’s a massive win for crypto,” Rusher said. “This decision paves the way for a shift from memecoins to projects with real utility.”
DeFi should be able to grow in the future with more clarity.
Michael Saylor remains, as usual, bullish. In the last seven days, Strategy ($MSTR), now renamed Strategy $MSTR, has spent over $2 billion to acquire 20,356 BTC. Saylor has continued to accumulate MSTR stock as its premium relative to NAV dropped to the lowest level in over a year.
Buy the dip, or do you expect an even deeper correction? Given BTC breaking key support, short-term downside risk remains. Long-term fundamentals — institutional adoption and regulatory clarity — still favor crypto. Coming days will reveal a lot. If BTC fails to reclaim $90,000–$96,000, one would expect a deeper correction into the $70s. Bitcoin’s bull-market may have more legs if ETF withdrawals stop and risk appetite increases.
Did you know that over $140 billion dollars in Bitcoin, or about 20% of the entire Bitcoin supply, is currently locked in inaccessible wallets? Or maybe you have lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? Don’t let those funds remain out of reach! AI Seed Phrase Finder is here to help you regain access effortlessly. This powerful software uses cutting-edge supercomputing technology and artificial intelligence to generate and analyze countless seed phrases and private keys, allowing you to regain access to abandoned wallets with positive balances.
