BTC was mostly quiet last week. Various narratives appeared to have shifted sentiment to different places.
We then saw the asset’s price sink below $94,000 around 1 pm ET Tuesday — down more than 3% from seven days prior.
Compass Point analysts reported in a report on Tuesday that the volume of crypto-exchanges has reached its lowest since the US election.
Last week, the US spot bitcoin ETFs had $580 million of net outflows, Farside Investors data shows — breaking a six-week inflow streak.
Crypto Twitter is ablaze at every sign of an institutional purchase. We have a look at this through 13F filings. These show holdings by investment managers who manage $100 million in assets under management.
There was the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund — Mubadala Investment Co. — holding $437 million of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), as of Dec. 31.
Meanwhile, the state of Wisconsin reported having nearly 6.1 million shares of IBIT in Q4 — roughly double the 2.9 million shares it had held the prior quarter.
Tudor Investment Corp also increased its BTC holdings. Paul Tudor Jones founded firm increased its IBIT holdings from 4.4 millions shares in Q3 up to 8,000,000 shares in Q4 (worth $427million).
It reminded me of an article I wrote at the beginning of my Blockworks’ career. Jones said the following on CNBC Squawk Box about bitcoin at that time. “I like the idea of investing in something that’s reliable, consistent, honest and 100% certain.”
Jones made a note of allocations at the time, which included 5% gold, 5% bitcoin, and 5% commodities, before considering any other positions, such as Fed action, etc.
In October 2023, the billionaire said that BTC and gold were both good investments. “probably take on a larger percentage of your portfolio” The macro-picture and the geopolitical tensions.
Tudor’s IBIT positions are not at all surprising, given Tudor’s past comments. This bitcoin-based vehicle is one of the largest positions held by Tudor.
BTC is still a long way off from its previous high of around $109,000.
Mike Marshall, Amberdata’s Head of Research, has noted that liquid assets are accumulating at around $95,000. “with smart money positioning and retail making small purchases.”
BTC was credited with his attribution “quiet phase” Investors wait for more economic data [and] Policy and renewed confidence in the market
“Better CPI results for February and resolution of tariff uncertainty could trigger this,” Marshall note
Ed Engel and Joe Flynn of Compass Point argued that BTC’s low volatility profile is similar to those observed in September/October 20,23 as well as in February, July and October 2024.
“Pronounced volatility” They added that the price rose three times in each of these four periods.
“Crypto prices often rally into the spring before declining into summer,” Engel and Flynn authored. “BTC’s [$92,000] cost basis for short-term holders still provides strong support.”
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