Crypto and TradFi traders tend to pay attention when Coinbase announces its quarterly earnings.
According to Oppenheimer analyst, COIN is a portal for Web3 customers, given its accessibility. “leading and focused position in crypto, which benefits the company as onchain becomes the new online.”
And it’s public — unlike some others waiting their turn.
To recap yesterday’s results: the crypto exchange generated $2.2 billion in net revenue during the last quarter, up by 143% compared to previous years.
The analysts at Oppenheimer had estimated that the amount would be $305,000,000 more.
The transaction revenue reached $1.6 billion in Q4, a 172% rise from the previous quarter. Over that period, revenue from subscriptions and other services grew by 15 percent to $641million.
The biggest surprise, Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau told me, was the higher-than-expected participation from the retail segment — showing such users are “gradually coming back.” Take, for instance, the “consumer” Line in the graph below.
It’s true that this quarter saw bitcoin and other crypto assets reach all-time records following Donald Trump’s election and those of the crypto-friendly Congressional candidate.
Coinbase’s 2025 early numbers are strong, even though BTC’s price has been range bound in the past few weeks.
According to the company, its transaction revenue for 2025 was $750m as of 11th February. Coinbase expects Q1 revenue from subscriptions and services to increase slightly to $685-$765 million.
Morningstar analyst Michael Miller has said that he will pay close attention to the USDC revenues of the exchange in Q1 due to the recent market capitalization record for the stablecoin.
“I’ll be curious to see what a full quarter will look like at its scale and if USDC continues to take market share away from other stablecoins,” Miller told me.
COIN’s price was around $278 at 2 pm ET — down nearly 7% on the day.
Miller’s view is that the price of the shares should be $388. Oppenheimer believes it will reach this level. “overvalued” as, post-election, “the market is pricing in too much growth.”
As you may recall, one of Bitwise’s 10 predictions was that Coinbase would surpass Charles Schwab in 2025 as the world’s largest brokerage. Asset manager expects to see its share price reach $700, due to continued growth of its L2 Base stablecoin service, as well as its staking, custody and staking services.
Juan Leon, Bitwise’s senior investment strategist and Juan Leon has pinned this November 2023 Tweet:
Another catalyst to watch for, Lau said, is COIN’s possible inclusion in the S&P 500.
Then, there are all of the regulatory advantages that could come as a result of having a cryptocurrency-friendly President, Congress and SEC. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong explained “it’s hard to overstate the significance of this change” It is expected that the adoption of crypto will increase worldwide.
“Up to 10% of global GDP could be running on crypto rails by the end of this decade,” Armstrong said on Thursday’s earnings call — noting Coinbase will be “the preferred partner” Due to its “trusted and scalable infrastructure with the longest track record.”
The company has said that it is in talks with legislators and regulators about shaping US crypto regulations.
How likely is it that a stablecoin and digital asset bill will pass in the 119th Congress. Ed Groshans from Compass Point stated in a report on Friday, that 75% of the bills would pass.
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