The Forward Guidance Team wishes you a Happy New Year! In 2024 we launched the newsletter and were excited to keep bringing our readers macro- and crypto-insights in 2025.
We are now entering Q1. Let’s see what the market could do next.
Wall Street, which was denied the opportunity to rally around Santa Claus at the end December, may have a boost in January. So-called “January effect” This is not something that can be guaranteed, but has been proven to happen.
The S&P 500 in January 2023 had a 5.8% return for the month. In the first months of 2024, the index gained 2,12%. Nasdaq, the tech-heavy index, also had a positive January in both 2024 and 2023. The index returned 1.95% each time.
But 2025 brings a new — well, old — administration to the White House, a Republican-majority Congress and a slower rate-cutting pace from the Fed. The situation is one that’s conducive to volatility on both the crypto and equity markets.
In January 2017 (when Trump was inaugurated the first time), the S&P 500 had a 1.21% monthly return and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.49%. Republican victories are usually followed by an increase in stock prices (remember the surge we experienced last November?So keep this in mind.
On Jan. 10th, the next US Employment report will be published. This should help us to better understand where interest rate decisions may go.
CME Group’s data shows that as of yesterday the odds were 89% for the FOMC to keep interest rates the same later in the month.
The same uncertainty exists in the crypto world.
Investors seem to be in a waiting pattern, waiting for Trump to deliver on the promises he made about his industry. The SEC’s new leadership, along with three commissioners who are all fresh faces, may be the catalyst. The same effect would probably be achieved if Congress acted on a revised FIT21 Bill (or a recently introduced Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill).
But — as I’m telling my friends and family who’ve asked me countless times over the holidays — no one really knows what’s going to happen, with bitcoin or otherwise.
The year 2025 is going to be an exciting one.
Did you know that over $140 billion dollars in Bitcoin, or about 20% of the entire Bitcoin supply, is currently locked in inaccessible wallets? Or maybe you have lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? Don’t let those funds remain out of reach! AI Seed Phrase Finder is here to help you regain access effortlessly. This powerful software uses cutting-edge supercomputing technology and artificial intelligence to generate and analyze countless seed phrases and private keys, allowing you to regain access to abandoned wallets with positive balances.
