Bitcoin was on the way to reaching its first cycle peak by this time in the previous bull run.
Retrospectively, those peaks always become apparent. Bitcoin was up from $10,000 in just six months to $60,000 or more. In retrospect, it was obvious that the market needed a correction. Bitcoin retraced about 50% within the next 8 weeks.
We are left with the question: is this sea of blood red the beginning of an even bigger correction?
The chart below shows the bitcoin price over the current bull market (which began at the end of the last bear market, in November 2022), in comparison to the bull-market returns since 2018.
In most cases, I use a graph on a scale of logarithmic returns that dates back to 2015. The chart this time is a linear one and compares only the current cycle with the last.
Click on any of the colored swatches to see the interactive version.
The current retracement would begin around 40 days before the previous time. This would not be unusual.
Perhaps, it might be better to just get the correction out of the way — if there’s indeed enough momentum on the other side of it to drive it back to new highs, like there was in mid-to-late 2021.
This is a problem. This only applies to bitcoin. BTC’s 50% correction historically has caused other currencies to fall much farther, and that would be painful with the current mood.
As a positive to look at, we’ve entered the eighth week in 2025. The altcoin market — all coins that aren’t in the top 10 by market cap — has posted negative returns for all but two weeks.
If we consider the red candle of Monday’s week as an indicator, then only 25 percent is due to strike.
Altcoins have posted weekly positive returns in 42% of cases, even at its lowest point over the last 10 years. This was 2022, during the worst bear market ever recorded.
Even though the current market conditions are rough, the overall picture is still one of calm before the storm. Volatility will be high in both directions. Hooray.
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