What are the signs that a bull-run is ending?
Bitcoin is on its way to breaking the price record set in March. If the price continues, it may reach another apparent local peak and soon we will start to question whether it was that.
We can only look backwards, but even that is more for entertainment purposes than to make meaningful predictions. Crypto market is just dudes’ astrology and other such things.
Let’s just lean in.
We are aware that ETH and bitcoin have lagged each other so far this calendar year. The demise of Ethereum to make way for Solana is a great topic on X, but ETH was always behind BTC at setting price records.
ETH capped off the 2017-2018 bull run with an all-time high on Jan. 13, 2018 — 27 days after bitcoin had peaked at almost $20,000.
BTC surpassed those levels early in December 2020 after 1,080 days, but ETH’s price was still 60% lower than its previous record.
ETH was to go on and more than double within the next 56-days, reaching a new high by the end January 2021.
This time it’s different. Bitcoin has been at its highest level since November 20, 21 for 238 days, but ETH is still not within 20% of its high. Currently, it’s 45% below.
SOL’s performance is almost as good as ETH in the same time period.
ETH has been closely correlated with SOL since Bitcoin’s March peak, and SOL remains 31% under its November record high.
If you want to know if ETH and SOL are going to catch on after confirmation of a Bitcoin bull run, ask your group leader.
Let me tell you instead that BTC (and ETH), SOL (and dozens other tokens), are probably out of sync. The palmistry for the last four-year period shows that this bullish trend is likely to continue.
The end of a rally is marked by the convergence of major assets at their all-time highest prices.
BTC was not identical to ETH during the drawdown recovery between their cycle tops. The process of returning to the highs took time.
The peaks of BTC and ETH were reached on the same date, but SOL was a couple days earlier.
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