Altcoin may not return.
You may not know altcoins as you do. The next altcoin can be described as a altcoin boom.
There’s no need to invest in random coins that are gaining popularity and hoping for a quick profit at the top of a bull market. Only a dozen or so high quality projects might give massive returns — coins with sensible tokenomics, realistic narratives and few enough vested interests that normal people stand to benefit early on.
It’s a real shame.
Alternative theory: Altcoin Season is bound to return in size. “crime season” It is inevitable.
At least according to my algorithm, calls for crime seasons have increased since SEC Chairman Gensler left and Trump became president. The phrase is now used as a synonym for “do whatever you like, as long as it directly benefits you and me.”
It’s not just crypto that is experiencing a crime wave. As Virtuals agent AIXBT said, in the crypto world, the crime season is a return of peak degen behaviour, with the goal to increase the amount at any cost, including illegally.
Define “altcoin season” was fairly straightforward — comparing growth in altcoins versus bitcoin gives us three distinct altcoin seasons since 2016. We’re long overdue. The last one finished at the peak of November 2021, which is when the bull market ended.
Criminal seasons are not as mathematical. The crime seasons are less mathematical.
This chart compares the crime season to altcoin season over the last decade.
Market capitalization is shown in grey-shaded areas on the reverse. The colored bands represent altcoins and the crime season.
Pink is for crime season, blue is for altcoin season, and purple shows where the two overlap — when crime season and altcoin season are happening at the same time.
These red lines highlight the start and finish of each crime season. As you can see, there have been two separate — but huge — seasons of criminality in the past decade.
The first and best crypto-ponzi BitConnect was launched in February 2016, which is a very broad approach.
The Ethrereum ICO mania eventually merged with the season and lasted until April 2018 when the Feds went after the Centra founders, the mostly phony crypto financial startup that raised $25 million. QuadrigaCX founder Gerald Cotten disappeared around eight months later.
The second crime season otherwise began when Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX in 2019 — a domino that topped over into NFT bubbles, DeFi Summer, ransomware and flash loan attacks, as well as dog coin frenzies.
The arrest of Mango Markets Hacker Avi “profitable trading strategy” Eisenberg in Puerto Rico, Boxing Day 2020.
On the graph, you’ll see that, with the exception of a few weeks in 2019, altcoin has always been associated with crime season. It’s true that the biggest altcoin periods in history have always coincided with crime seasons.
It’s good to know that the crime season is already pre-programmed. It is human nature to find ways of committing crimes (imagine how autonomous agents would act). The altcoin boom is also possible.
It’s inevitable: The crime season will come.
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