The Small Cap Kings
The bull market could end in a final small-cap summer.
Think of it like the internal waves churning thousands of feet deep beneath the ocean — ones that finally summon a real altcoin season.
The crypto market was divided into four categories – mega-caps, large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps – based on established stock exchange definitions.
- A mega-cap is worth at least $200 billion
- Big-caps from $10 to $200 billion
- Midcaps range between $2 Billion and $10 Billion
- Between $250 Million and $2 Billion
To take into account the volatile nature of cryptocurrency, we based our benchmarks on how much time tokens spent above these benchmarks in each bucket.
Stacks was sorted as a small-cap because it only traded mid-cap for 31 percent of the trading days between August 2021 and now.
Currently, there are over 50 large-cap companies but only bitcoin and ether. Crypto also only has five large-cap assets — bnb, solana, xrp, dogecoin and cardano — and around two dozen mid-caps including polygon, filecoin, cronos, monero and chainlink.
The 143-tokens represent capital letters. These coins include pyth, dydx, worldcoin, blur, ondo, helium, celestia, and bittensor.
All small-caps have spent the majority of the last three years, or however long they were on the stock market, trading between $250 million to $2 billion. The small-caps may have traded for weeks, or months over the $2 billion threshold but they did not stay above that mark long enough to move beyond their category.
What time does summer in small caps begin? The answer is up to you, just like there’s not a clear-cut definition of an altcoin summer (see previous posts here and here).
As for me, the small-cap summer begins when tokens of small caps are worth more as a group than those of mid-caps.
This hasn’t happened in April 2022.
But we are closer now than we were this time last year — small caps are altogether worth $93.6 billion to $115.2 billion for midcaps, a difference of only 19% compared to over 30% in August 2023.
It is possible. An overwhelming majority of small caps may have lost significant value over the past three months — but six in particular are keeping the dream alive.
The performance of zcash helium, brett mog and not has all been better than bitcoin since May.
When it comes to memecoins, all of them have done well multiples whereas bitcoin and ether has been slightly down during the same period.
It may sound gloomy that only six of the 143 bitcoins have displayed real strength during a Bitcoin correction (that’s an average strike rate of around 4%).
These could be the green shoots that signal summer for small caps.
Data Center
- BTC and ETH remain range-bound. Both down by 4% Give up your gains from yesterday (BTC $58,800, ETH $2,650).
- HNT You can also find out more about the following: You can also find out more about TONAlongside memecoins You can also find out more about the upcoming event., WIF You can also find out more about the following: BRETTThe most significant declines on the first page have been between 10 and 6 percent.
- Ethereum Validator Queue has increased again. There are 1,403 waiting in the wings The exit queue is empty. The queue for the exit is empty.
- $141.3 million in liquidations on CEXs over the past 24 hours — over Longs account for 80% of the total..
- The Weekly DEX Volumes have Dropped 43%According to DeFiLlama currently, $35 billion has been spent in the last seven days.
The Back to Top
13F szn is back, y’all.
You may already be familiar with the 13F form if you have been with us a long time (or you might know it just by being smart).
A 13F filing is an annual disclosure that provides us with some information about what large banks or firms managing assets of over $100 million held during the previous quarter.
It’s not something I like to do, as they can sometimes seem out of date, since you’re looking at the past instead of moving forward. It’s true that they can help us read tea leaves to better understand our current situation.
This is the only holdings available as of June 30. There are no ETFs for ether, launched in July.
To summarize, a close look at 13F disclosures shows what firms are investing in Bitcoin ETFs. It also shows the changes that have occurred since previous Q1 ETF holders.
Goldman Sachs, for example, disclosed approximately $400 million worth of bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter of this year. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, revealed that it held a substantial position in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (5,5 million shares valued at $187 at the time of filing), which made Morgan Stanley one of IBIT’s top investors.
Goldman Sachs disclosed approximately 6.9 millions shares of IBIT (worth about $238 million by the end of the third quarter).
MacroScope pointed out correctly that Morgan Stanley disclosed that the shares are allocated to Investment Management.
Ben Strack had previously pointed out that Morgan Stanley might be showing a sudden interest in ETFs. It is important to note that these holdings date back nearly two full months. Things could have changed since then, but I believe the timing coincides with Morgan Stanley allowing some customers to invest post-13F in ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s ETF IBIT (though they also have Fidelity fund).
The last time we discussed these filings, the big story was that Wisconsin disclosed its holdings in BlackRock ETFs as well as Grayscale ETFs. Yesterday, we were given another look at the holdings of Wisconsin.
Wisconsin has an impressive amount of IBIT and even increased its holdings. As of the end June, Wisconsin held 2.8 millions shares of IBIT, up from 2.4million last quarter. The state sold off its Grayscale holdings, which translates to a sale of over a half million shares (or $47M at current price) in GBTC between both disclosure periods.
Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise Invest noted that institutional bitcoin ETFs have grown by 30 percent since the start of this quarter. And we did see a number of firms — 44% — boost their stacks as well, though I only really highlighted some of the biggest disclosures so far.
Hedge funds are the largest institutional investors out of all the companies that have disclosed their holdings.
But let’s face it: In a couple of months, we’ll be able to see who holds the ETFs for ETH. Now the countdown begins.
The Works
- Binance Just a few months after being fined, the company completed its registration in India.
- Senate Majority leader Chuck SchumerHe said at an event for Crypto4Harris that he would like to become a certified Crypto4Harris. “sensible” crypto legislation.
- Digital Asset Management is headed by the head of digital assets management Fidelity The Block reports that The Block has been looking at tokenization.
- Bitcoin miner Marathon The firm stated that it had purchased bitcoin worth $249,000,000 after its $300,000,000 senior notes offer.
- Eric Trump The New York Post reported that the cryptocurrency initiative he teased in X was not the one he had originally intended. “digital real estate.”
The Riff
It’s a difficult story, and one that I will continue to closely follow.
Gambaryan had been detained in Nigeria by the government in February, after he flew in from his US home to meet with officials regarding accusations his company Binance faced.
The next scheduled court date is October 11th. He is currently in Kuje prison. A family representative said that his health wasn’t in the best of shape.
According to a representative of the family, Gambaryan “mostly bedridden.”
So these are the actual facts. It’s important to note that Gambaryan — even though he’s facing a trial — is being used, basically, as a scapegoat for Binance. Nigerian claims are directed at Binance, the exchange that left the country in early this year.
Last month, two US legislators introduced a bill to call for the release of Gambaryan. However, there hasn’t been any further developments since.
Gambaryan should be home by the time of that hearing in October. The charges of tax violation have already been dismissed.
It’s bureaucracy in its worst form.
The Nigerian government is hell-bent to prove that Binance has accelerated its local currency’s collapse, the Naira.
It seemed logical at first glance: Binance gave its users a way to dump their nairas for stablecoins, bitcoins, and other tokens.
The Binance Rate for Naira was used by local traders instead of official government figures.
It’s not hard to imagine how Binance could be blamed if naira sellers were causing prices to plummet day after day. But Binance itself never set the rate — that was naira holders themselves.
Gambaryan’s and Binance’s experiences are likely to be replicated elsewhere. If crypto’s current trajectory continues, then it is inevitable that the presence of a crypto-on-ramp will accelerate the devaluation and hyperinflation of small sovereign currencies.
It’s wrong for governments to place blame on exchange executives or crypto for this situation. Gambaryan’s only option is to hope Nigerian authorities will quickly come around.
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