The art of forecasting the end of a crypto-market cycle is just as important as its science.
Your Uber driver may ask about the newest dog coin. There is a notable increase in celebrity crypto projects. Or, your cousin, who only visits you once a Thanksgiving, might send you a message asking for advice on crypto.
Crypto investors use five different tools to dust off their crystal balls every four years. This is not to say that the historical data can be a guarantee of what will happen in the future.
Bitcoins are halving in price
It is impossible to discuss crypto cycles without mentioning the Bitcoin halving quadrennial event.
The Bitcoin network halves the reward emission every four years. This latest halving has seen network emissions reduced by half from 6,25 BTC down to 3,125 BTC.
Halfing is at the center of all crypto cycles, as it’s a sign of speculative and greedy behavior in crypto markets. It is important to note that each cycle tends peak between 12-18 month after the halving.
Eight months have passed since the last halving of April 2024. If history is any indication, there are still a few more cycles to come in 2024.
Google search for ‘bitcoin’
In the crypto-bull market, this chart appears on Twitter every few days. The chart is an easy-to-understand indicator. Retailers are looking to be up to date and Bitcoin is their preferred Google keyword.
It was mid-May of 2021 that bitcoin interest peaked, roughly six months before its price reached its peak.
Pi Cycle Top indicator
The Pi Cycle Top measures bitcoins’ price based on the moving averages of 111 days and 350 days (multiplied twice).
When the Pi Cycle Top indicator crosses over the other, the subscriber believes that this is when the top cycle will be reached. It has been fairly accurate in previous bull cycles, including 2013, 2017, and 2021.
The indicator relies on key information: the bull market will end when everybody and their mother is looking to buy orange coins. Market euphoria can drive prices up to unsustainable heights. “normal” Bitcoin prices are influenced by short-term growth patterns, which cause them to diverge significantly from long-term trends.
App Store Rankings
Premise: Newbies are more likely to use Coinbase than Uniswap in order to learn about cryptocurrencies. The top-ranking Coinbase app on the App Store is a sign that the end of the cryptocurrency cycle is close.
How simple is that?
There are Telegram groups that track this measure. Coinbase’s ranking has fluctuated from 66th place to 135th in the past week.
Phantom Wallet rankings have become popular since Solana has returned to the spotlight. This is the prevailing thought: Retailers are all trading Solana mecoins on their mobile phones.
It is assumed that the majority of investors are still unaware about crypto, with each cycle bringing a fresh wave of new retail investors who haven’t used centralized exchanges. Crypto is already a popular investment. “mainstream,” The measure has lost its relevancy.
BTC:ETH ratio
The ETH to BTC ratio is something that investors and podcasters are always obsessed over.
This is the concept: investors purchase bitcoin during the initial stages of the cryptocurrency cycle. They were not satisfied with the profits they made from orange coins. “rotate” The ETH/BTC rate has risen as a result of the increase in altcoins.
ETH is currently at a low point, and ETH/BTC value has been questioned this cycle. The current ETH/BTC ratio is a low 0.034. To put things in perspective, ETH BTC reached a peak of 0.075 at the end of 2022 and 0.0109 last year.
Expect a crash in the markets when ETH/BTC reaches its peak.
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