People, I’m not sure. Solana looks pretty cooked. It is hovering at $130 and has dropped under the moving average of 50 days and 200 days. The price has dropped by about 35% in the past two weeks.
Many people are now asking, “Is the bull market over?” Is the Bybit Hack (or any other news such as the LIBRA memecoin Fustercluck, or upcoming FTX Unlocks) responsible? According to conventional wisdom, every cycle a big hack or scandal will stop the seemingly inexorable market momentum. Are these incidents the real cause or are they just convenient scapegoats?
In fact, bull runs follow a predictable pattern. BTC has historically peaked less than one year after recovering the all-time highest price of the previous cycle, usually in December or January. Then it moves sideways briefly, before descending, with everything following the lead. The same pattern was repeated in 2013 and 2017 as well as 2021. The current bitcoin cycle saw bitcoin recover $69K at the beginning of March 2024. It may have reached its peak 10 months later, in January 2025, with $108K.
People are hesitant to accept a correction that was inevitable, but it’s understandable. The recent Bybit hack has been framed as a cause for the presumptive downward spiral. Solana, a company that rode the bitcoin momentum up to almost $300, is also being blamed for this unwarranted behavior.
It’s been done before. We’ve seen this before. Gox, and the admission of bankruptcy by it, killed the 2013 bull market. China’s decision to ban Bitcoin halted ICOs in 2017. FTX scandals and Luna’s scandals were the main reasons for canceling 2021. But no. All of this is not true.
Bitcoin’s ATH surpassed $1,000 approximately 9 months following its return to $31 in November 2013. Mt. It wasn’t until February 2014, months after the Mt. China’s Bitcoin banning didn’t stop the bull market in 2017. Ban was imposed when bitcoins were around $4,000. Price dropped briefly, before soaring to $18K. The market crashed 10 months after the high of the previous cycle. People said that the reason for the crash was China’s crackdown on mining bitcoins in response to the ban.
Luna and FTX both destroyed investor confidence but neither was responsible for the bear market. The crypto prices had been declining since December 2021. This was about one year after the all-time record high of the previous cycle. In May 2022, the terraUSD crash occurred. FTX didn’t implode until November. Solana was in a downward trend before the event, despite its association with FTX.
Even if we ignore all of the other major hacks, they did not coincide with peaks in markets. The DAO and Bitfinex hackers were massive in 2016. Why did the market ignore hacks that were real bear-catalysts?
Hacks and scandals don’t end bull runs. Markets crash due to overheating, leverage, and exhausted demand — all of which align with natural cycle peaks and troughs. Local dips are more likely when bad news is released, but macro-scale crashes will not occur if the markets isn’t at the correct position in relation to the cycle. Bybit was certainly a cause for traders to panic. It would have been another thing if Bybit hadn’t happened.
Now what? What now? “JENGA!” yet. Perhaps another leg. It appears that whales are accumulating which is bullish. Given the timing of this, it is also possible that time ran out in January. This could be the bottom. IF this is true, then it will be blockchain’s weakest-ever market cycle. History is unambiguous: Hacks do not end bull runs. Bull runs come to an end and traders search for something they can blame.
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