Even though it has been a bearish crypto week, an optimist still finds pockets of positive news.
Greg Magadini of Amberdata believes the data coming from derivatives shows the options trading volume for Solana peaked right around his inauguration. That could mean that SOL reached its maximum.
“I think the bearish story within altcoins is that the supply of altcoins is essentially unlimited. And so we’re seeing so many new altcoins … every day there’s just kind of a new increase in the total altcoin float, which is completely opposed to the limited fixed supply of the bitcoin value proposition. And so I think that dynamic is hard to overcome,” Magadini explains.
This divide can be easily seen even outside crypto. Magadini might call it a “hard money narrative”: gold is going up, while commodities like cocoa and coffee are getting more expensive. The bitcoin vs. cryptocurrency debate makes more sense when you add in discussions about an AI bubble.
In this instance, Bitcoin is the main story. Right now, everything is going well and everyone’s waiting for news about a possible bitcoin reserve. Altcoins are less bullish, as they don’t share the same catalysts.
It’s not to say bitcoin will explode. Magadini predicts it’ll trade between $85,000-100,000 for the next 2-3 months. After the recent bullishness, he told me that this is the action needed.
“I think during that hanging out period, bitcoin actually gains dominance. It’s a relatively strong asset. I think for the altcoin space, we’re getting a little bit of a flush out, and we’re really seeing that right now with SOL and ETH.”
“If we just look at the charts of ether and bitcoin [in terms of] the relative price, the fact that we had a huge spike lower for ether versus bitcoin is pretty rare because those are very correlated assets. The move that it had was a very volatile move, which is unusual. That was significant, that meant something. And we’re seeing the same thing with the SOL-BTC ratio, where it pretty much popped out at a local high on inauguration day and has just come down since,” He said. His read is that it’s a sign of retail flow — or lack thereof.
There’s no need to worry, said the expert, because it could be an indication that we’re entering a speculative stage, since there’s still not much fundamental information about many altcoins.
But, hey, at least we don’t have to blame everything on memecoins…right?
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