Enjoy your Friday.
Many bulls have told us that we still have a few more weeks in December before the bitcoin price reaches another all-time record high. Let’s see how that turns out.
As the UK government used to say, keep calm and continue. It’s relevant to us right now.
This morning we are diving deep into the cycle to see why it is not so different than previous cycles. (Sorry, everyone) Many people also have opinions on AI agents, and what they will do next.
Look forward to seeing you on Monday.
The same old thing happens every time
Always tempting to do the opposite. It’s tempting to think that this time will be different.
It is a problem that, in terms of cryptography, all that has happened in the present is already reflected in past events.
The Bitcoin bull market has been predictable and cyclical.
With the exception of BTC’s all-time high before the halving this time around — rather than around six months after the fact — the current bitcoin bull market is totally par for the course.
Anyone who has read our emails is already familiar with this chart. This chart compares our current (purple) run with previous cycles, as though they had all begun at the same time.
This bitcoin bull run is standard. The bull run was not explosive, fast or particularly slow.
In fact, bull market trajectory has been the same over time. There are some emerging trends.
1. BTC cycle peaks take longer every time
Bitcoin reached a peak between 2011-2015, about 750 trading days after its major bull market.
The bull market that followed between 2015-2018 peaked at 845 days, and the next one from 2018-2022 took more than 1,000 days.
This is the 746th day of a bull market. We could be looking at another 10 to 12 months before we reach a peak if the current trend continues.
2. Reward is shrinking
Bitcoin rose 621x during the initial run. It then jumped over 100x for the second, and almost 22x by the third.
If we extrapolate that trend downward, BTC will go 6x higher from the bottom to the top of the cycle.
Good news: We’ve already smashed those returns — BTC at $100,000 is 6.7x.
This chart shows the bitcoin price compared to altcoins.
It’s already clear that the season of altcoins is approaching. It’s fascinating to see how much altcoins need to grow to equal their previous cycle.
By the peak of November 2021, crypto’s market capitalization (excluding Bitcoin) was 49 times higher than it is today. The altcoins market cap has only grown by 3.7x.
Altcoins took more than 1,000 day to reach their peak the last two times.
If this is not a different time, then there’s plenty of room for alternates.
There’s nothing quite like hopium in the morning on a friday.
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