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The Key Takeaways
- Business optimism has surged since Donald Trump's election in November, and business leaders have expressed a noteworthy turnaround in sentiment.
- The NFIB Small Business Sentiment Survey reached its highest level since 2018 and supports other data that show business owners have a positive outlook.
- Consumer surveys also show some improvement in the mood since the elections, but they don’t display the same optimism.
Business leaders are feeling renewed optimism about the future of the economy. Consumers have a variety of opinions on the outlook for the economy.
Since the election of Donald Trump in November, there has been a notable change in business owner and executive sentiment. The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index (NFIB), which soared in December to its highest levels since October 2018, is perhaps the best example of this reversal.
That followed the November survey results—the first since the election—where the number of small business owners who were optimistic about the economy rose by 41 points.
“Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election,” Bill Dunkelberg is the NFIB’s Chief Economist. “Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation, and positive business conditions have increased in anticipation of pro-business policies and legislation in the new year.”
And much of that optimism is directly tied to Trump's campaign promises, analysts said.
“Small business owners anticipate lower regulatory costs and more transparent policy direction, particularly regarding energy policy and tax treatment,” Adrian Helfert is the chief investment officer of Westwood.
Other surveys show a jump in business owner sentiment
This is not the first survey that shows an increase in optimism from businesses.
JPMorgan Chase surveyed business leaders annually and found that 65% of them expressed optimism about the economy. This is more than twice as many responses from last year. The number of respondents who predict a decline in economic activity in 2025 has dropped from 40% to only 14%.
According to a survey conducted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 72% of business owners expect revenue growth in 2025.
“Recession concerns have dropped as businesses, consumers and markets have handled a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected. Confidence in the soft-landing scenario has increased, and business leaders are facing forward with a positive mindset,” Ginger Chambless is the head of commercial banking research at JPMorganChase. She made this statement in advance.
Customers need to be confident in their businesses
Consumers, on the other hand, have expressed more moderate opinions regarding economic prospects.
For example, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed consumer expectations in January were almost seven points lower than at the same point last year. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in December, after rising following the November elections.
Although small-business optimism is encouraging, Helfert writes that for the businesses to grow this year, consumers must also remain optimistic about the economy.
“Looking ahead, the sustainability of this optimistic trend may depend on whether consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-wage cohorts, follows suit,” He said:
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